A dramatic shift in sentiment has swept through the world’s boardrooms, as global CEO optimism has plummeted to levels not seen since the depths of late 2022. A recent study by The Conference Board, in collaboration with The Business Council, reveals a sharp decline in confidence, with nearly 83% of CEOs now anticipating a recession within the next 12 to 18 months. This marks the largest quarter-over-quarter decline in the survey’s 50-year history.
The “Measure of CEO Confidence” for Q2 2025 dropped by a staggering 26 points to a score of 34 (a reading below 50 indicates more negative than positive responses). This sudden downturn comes after a surge in optimism in Q1, highlighting the rapid deterioration of the global economic outlook in the eyes of business leaders. All components of the measure, from current economic conditions to future expectations for their own industries, have weakened into pessimistic territory. A separate Fortune/Deloitte CEO Survey (Spring 2025) reinforces this trend, showing a substantial decline in optimism regarding both the global economy and individual company performance.
Geopolitical instability has emerged as the foremost concern for CEOs, closely followed by trade and tariffs. The volatile international landscape, marked by ongoing conflicts and unpredictable policy shifts, is creating an environment of deep uncertainty that is hindering strategic planning and investment. Regulatory uncertainty has also climbed the list of top risks, surpassing cyber threats, which had dominated concerns over the past two years.
CEOs’ assessment of current general economic conditions has drastically worsened, with 82% now stating that conditions are worse than six months ago, a sharp contrast to only 11% in the previous quarter. Similarly, pessimism about conditions in their own industries has flipped, with 69% reporting a decline compared to 22% in Q1. Looking ahead, a significant majority (64%) expect economic conditions to worsen over the next six months, and over half (51%) anticipate a deterioration in their own industry’s prospects.
In response to this grim outlook, CEOs are adopting more cautious strategies. While a majority still plan no revisions to their capital spending, the share of CEOs expecting to decrease investment plans has doubled, while those expecting to increase them have dropped significantly. Hiring intentions are also subdued, with most CEOs anticipating no change in workforce size, and a slight uptick in those planning reductions. Plans for significant wage increases have also sharply declined, reflecting a more conservative approach to cost management.
The shift in CEO sentiment underscores the profound impact of global complexities on corporate strategy. With geopolitical risks intensifying and trade tensions casting a long shadow, business leaders are prioritizing resilience, cost management, and supply chain diversification. While the influence of Artificial Intelligence (AI) continues to be a key trend for future growth and efficiency, the immediate focus for many CEOs is on navigating the turbulent waters of present economic and geopolitical uncertainty. This widespread pessimism signals a challenging period ahead for the global economy, as businesses brace for potential headwinds and prioritize stability over aggressive expansion.
